Want me to run your initiative through the Capital-to-Evidence Gate?
Send me one Substack direct message with the following (see form below):
What are you considering doing?
Who needs to make progress?
What progress or problem do you believe matters to them?
What must be true for the initiative to work?
What evidence do you currently have?
What are you about to commit?
What decision are you trying to make now?
You do not need to write an essay. Concise answers are enough.
I will review the case and send you back a short Capital-to-Evidence Brief identifying:
the assumption I believe creates the greatest exposure;
the evidence that is still missing;
whether I would TEST, COMMIT, DEFER or STOP / REFRAME;
the smallest credible next step;
the evidence that should change the decision.
Send your case to me via Substack direct message.
This experiment is currently free and limited to the first 10 cases.
Intake form (please use this)
1. What are you considering doing?
Describe the initiative or decision in 2–4 sentences.
2. Who needs to make progress?
Who is the relevant customer, user, job performer, buyer or organisation?
3. What progress or problem do you believe matters to them?
Describe what they are trying to achieve, change or overcome.
4. What must be true for this initiative to work?
List the 2–5 assumptions you currently consider most important.
These might concern the problem, behavior, adoption, solution, willingness to switch or pay, economics, capabilities, regulation or another critical condition.
5. What evidence do you currently have?
Include anything relevant: observed behavior, interviews, existing workarounds, usage, experiments, pilots, commitments, willingness to pay, sales, internal opinion or other evidence.
6. What are you about to commit?
What happens if you proceed?
For example: money, development capacity, people, reputation, contracts, technology, organizational change or time.
7. What decision are you trying to make now?
For example:
continue discovery;
run a test;
build;
launch;
scale;
invest;
partner;
stop;
something else.
8. Where should I send the result?
Email address:
Your information will be used only to analyze this request and return the Capital-to-Evidence Gate result.