When Thinking Being “Right” Becomes the Enemy of Strategy
The article was inspired by something ordinary: a couple arguing.
It happened on a train ride through the Swiss mountains, on the way to visit a close friend. The landscape outside moved slowly, deliberately. Snow-dusted slopes, quiet villages, long tunnels that forced reflection simply because there was nothing else to look at.
Across the aisle, a couple was in a low but intense discussion. The husband insisted he had a clear opinion. He always did. On politics, decisions, plans, almost anything. The wife pushed back. Not on the substance, but on the posture behind it. Her point was simple: he wasn’t open to alternative views. His certainty closed the conversation before it had a chance to begin.
What struck me wasn’t who was right. It was how familiar the dynamic felt.
I have seen the same pattern play out repeatedly in strategy discussions, innovation initiatives, and business model transformations. Leaders with strong opinions. Teams with well-rehearsed arguments. Decisions that feel crisp and decisive. And yet, beneath that clarity, something fragile: assumptions that are never named, alternative perspectives that are never explored, and paths that look deliberate but quietly converge toward the same outcome everyone else is choosing.
The problem is not conviction. The problem is unexamined conviction.
Strategy doesn’t fail because leaders lack opinions. It fails because those opinions are treated as facts rather than as hypotheses that deserve pressure.
The Comfort of Certainty
Certainty feels productive. It signals leadership. It creates momentum. It reassures boards, teams, and investors that someone is in control.
On that train, certainty sounded efficient too. The husband wasn’t shouting. He was composed, logical, articulate. From the outside, it looked like strength.
But certainty has a shadow.
When we are certain, we stop exploring. When we stop exploring, we stop learning. And when learning stops, strategy quietly turns into execution of yesterday’s logic.
Most organizations don’t suffer from a lack of ideas. They suffer from an excess of unquestioned assumptions. Assumptions about customers, markets, costs, scalability, technology, timing, regulation, or internal capabilities. These assumptions are rarely written down. They live in slide decks, habits, and phrases like “we know our customers” or “this is how the industry works.”
Certainty turns these assumptions invisible.
And invisible assumptions are dangerous, because they guide decisions without ever being challenged.
The Phantom You End Up Following
As the train entered another tunnel, the conversation paused. Silence filled the space, briefly. It felt symbolic.
When assumptions remain implicit, something similar happens in organizations. You think you are making strategic choices, but you are actually following a phantom.
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