The Most Expensive Mistake in Strategy Is the Wrong Analogy
Most strategic failures do not come from bad execution.
They come from good execution of the wrong idea.
This is uncomfortable for experienced leaders because it suggests that discipline, intelligence, and effort are not sufficient. Entire organisations can move with precision, speed, and commitment, and still walk confidently in the wrong direction.
The underlying reason is rarely a lack of historical expertise and data. It is almost always a framing error.
More specifically: bad analogy.
When you move outside your known business, ctrl C/V thinking becomes fear-driven.
It borrows certainty from the past instead of building insight from the new terrain.
Strategy Is Always Built on Analogy (Whether You Admit It or Not)
Strategy never starts from a blank sheet.
Every strategic discussion implicitly answers a quiet question first:
“What kind of thing is this?”
A market, a product, a technology, a competitor, a threat, a future.
Before numbers appear, before roadmaps are drawn, before investments are approved, leadership teams decide—often unconsciously—what this situation is similar to.
That similarity becomes the reference frame.
Is this a better version of something we already know?
Is this a cost play?
Is this a channel shift?
Is this just automation?
Is this another IT project?
Is this a niche that will mature later?
Once the analogy is chosen, most decisions become almost automatic.
What to optimize.
What to protect.
What to postpone.
What to ignore.
And that is where things quietly go wrong.
Why Bad Analogies Are So Dangerous
Bad analogies are dangerous for three reasons:
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